Free MLB Picks & Predictions - Today's Best Expert MLB Bets (2024)

Guardians starter Ben Livelysports a 4.61 ERA and 4.83 xFIP through his past 10 starts, and opposing hitters have squared him up for a 42.0 hard-hit rate.Chicago also enters in far better offensive form with a seventh-ranked .343 wOBA and 5.11 runs per over nine August games, while Cleveland sports a 25th-ranked .301 wOBA while scoring 4.63 per.I also value Chicago starter Shota Imamaga facing the Guardians for the first time in his career and give the starting-pitching edge to the Cubbies.

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Neil Parker - Pick Made 4 hrs, 9 min ago.

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Valdez has averaged 98 pitches per start across his past five games with a sterling 2.41 ERA and 2.62 xFIP, and he’s also been a consistent innings eater. His 524.1 frames are sixth most among big-league starters since the beginning of the 2022 campaign, and Valdez’s 3.21 ERA and 3.22 xFIP stand as elite marks alongside his peers.

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Neil Parker - Pick Made 4 hrs, 57 min ago.

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While the Red Sox have lost four straight, they still have an offense that can slug it out with anyone. Boston is averaging 4.94 runs per game, the fourth-highest total in the majors this year.Rafael DeversandJarren Durananchor a deep lineup filled with left-handed bats. That sets up an interesting matchup against Rangers starterTyler Mahle, who looked good in his Texas debut following TJ surgery but didn't miss a lot of bats, which won't serve him well against Devers & Co.

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Ed Scimia - Pick Made 4 hrs, 56 min ago.

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Mahle will be making just his second start of the season following last year’s Tommy John surgery, and he only fanned two batters while tossing 76 pitches across five innings in his 2024 debut against Houston last Tuesday. Mahle is still being stretched out, and the Red Sox send out an excellent lineup against right-handed hurlers.Boston ranks second with a .333 wOBA against righties, andthey’ve also been hot out of the All-Star break with 6.05 runs per game and a third-ranked .364 wOBA.

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Neil Parker - Pick Made 5 hrs, 1 min ago.

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Aaron Judge enters this game with easily the highest run value against fastballs at +24 while sitting eighth in hard-hit rate amongst qualified hitters and first in slugging percentage. Need more convincing? Over 70% of his HRs in 2024 have been off fastball pitches.

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Chris Hatfield - Pick Made 3 hrs, 17 min ago.

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Left-hander Clayton Kershaw makes his fourth start of the campaign on Monday and he makes for a good fade candidate tonight. His comeback has not gone smoothly, posting a 0-2 record with a 4.38 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally concerning given that, if he officially qualified, Kershaw would rank in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, and strikeout rate. These woes are likely to continue against the Brewers, a team that boasts a dominating .500 SLG against the southpaw through 43 combined career plate appearances.

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Tony Sartori - Pick Made 6 hrs, 58 min ago.

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Opposing hitters have teed off on Gonzales for a 14.1 barrel percentage and 42.2 hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs, and he sports a 6.48 ERA, 2.04 WHIP and 5.18 xFIP over four starts since returning from a forearm strain. The Padres also have the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers (17.8%) and have been an offensive juggernaut out of the All-Star break with a .350 wOBA and even lower 16.9 K% overall.

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Neil Parker - Pick Made 4 hrs, 58 min ago.

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Few offenses have been as inept on the road as the Rockies. Their 79 away wRC+ is better than only the Marlins and White Sox and their 219 road runs are fourth worst. It serves as a fantastic matchup for D-Backs starter Brandon Pfaadt, who owns a respectable 3.92 ERA (3.56 FIP) over 23 starts. Meanwhile, Arizona owns the most potent offense of the second half (not counting Sunday's stats) with a 144 wRC+ and a .285/.355/.537 slash line. The D-Backs should be able to take this one by a couple of runs as a result.

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Jason Wilson - Pick Made 1 day, 0 hrs, 30 min ago.

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Blake Snell's allowed two hits or fewer in three of his last four starts in a display of sheer domination. Across 34 IP, he’s allowed five earned runs on 11 hits while recording 46 strikeouts. It’s the latter number I’m particularly interested in for Monday.TheBravesh*t lefties decently well but have one main weakness — the strikeout. They have an enormous 33.3% strikeout rate against LHP since the break, second-worst to the Rockies. The last time Snell had a matchup against a lineup this strikeout-prone was on July 27, when he punched out 15 Rockies.

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JD Yonke - Pick Made 7 hrs, 23 min ago.

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