Best NRFI Bets Today – No Runs First Inning Picks UPDATED DAILY (2024)

The Padres and Marlins converge at LoanDepot Park for the series finale in Miami. Recent no-hitter hurler Dylan Cease is listed as the probable starter for the Padres. After twirling the no-hitter against the Nationals, the pitcher responded with four hits and one earned run over his previous 6.2 innings on the bump.

Note that Cease has yielded just six hits and one hit over his last five starts. Additionally, he leads the Major Leagues with 176 strikeouts! Overall, Cease holds a 3.40 ERA and 0.99 WHIP across 24 starts this season.

Dylan Cease's shirt is 🔥🔥🔥

The July NL Pitcher of the Month broke down his no-hitter and the mechanical adjustments he has made recently with his glove side.@Padres | #MLBCentral pic.twitter.com/4amA3VpHvh

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) August 8, 2024

In his latest performance, the 28-year-old Georgia native appeared for the opening frame before a rain delay forced him to sit down. He’s in a great spot against a Marlins club that has struggled in the past. They are hitting just .111 with no RBIs through 18 innings versus the red-hot Cease!

The Marlins are expected to send Max Meyer to the bump for the seventh start of his career. The pitcher enters with a shaky 5.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

That said, Meyer has allowed three or fewer earned runs in four starts and two or fewer in three performances. A couple of bad performances have skewed his numbers, so I have some confidence in Meyer against the Padres’ lineup.

For your NRFI picks today, consider the Padres vs. Marlins matchup!

The Mets wrap up their 10-game road trip with one final outing in Seattle. Luis Severino is expected to make his 23rd start of the season at T-Mobile Park this afternoon. The pitcher is looking for a bounce-back spot after struggling in his latest appearance against the Rockies.

Fortunately, Severino will not have to navigate the tricky Coors Field in this one. Overall, the former Yankee owns a 4.06 ERA and 1.25 WHIP across 128.2 innings of work. Severino has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his last five performances.

He’s on fire against the Mariners in his career. They are hitting .174 with no RBIs in 23 at-bats against Severino! That’s a great run for the pitcher, who should cruise past the opening frame. Also, expect the same from the Mariners’ Luis Castillo.

Luis Castillo, Wicked 89mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/oZ0noV2yjb

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 7, 2024

Castillo heads into Sunday afternoon holding a 3.48 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through 24 showings. The Mets are hitting a mediocre .220 with two home runs against Castillo in 87 at-bats! He enters in fine form, posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over his last three starts. Also, note that the Mets are just 25th in the Majors, with 0.39 runs scored per 1st inning.

The Mets vs. Mariners matchup this Sunday is another solid option for your best NRFI bets today!

1. Check The Starting Lineups, Especially The Pitchers

You should always begin with the lineups. Check who the starting pitchers are and then go through the latest injuries and suspensions to see whether any of the teams will be missing key pieces.

We usually go to the CBS’ MLB injury report to see who’s out and who’s doubtful. They pull the data directly from league reports, so it’s trustworthy information.

2. Analyzing NRFI Stats

Once we know the most likely lineups, it’s time for a key step of our NRFI betting strategy: analyzing numbers. You need to go through various data points to determine how likely is for the opening inning of a game to end without any runs.

We explore the individual stats of the starting pitchers, we analyze the offensive numbers of both sides, and we also take a look at the total team stats for first inning runs.

Once we have a complete overview of what’s going on, we create our own estimates (in percentages) of how likely it is to see no runs in the first inning.

After that, it’s time to check the odds!

3. Line Shopping

It’s time to check some betting odds! We use two bookmakers that offer daily NRFI betting odds for the MLB: Bovada and BetWhale. We check their prices for all games and turn them into probabilities.

We compare them to our own estimates and when we see good betting value, we place our NRFI wagers!

We strongly recommend using multiple top betting sites yourself for the best results. The two we highlighted above are all excellent for no runs first inning bets.